Why Airline Route Expansions Don't Necessarily Mirror Current Travel Sentiment

There's been a steady stream of news coverage in recent weeks surrounding the decline in travel enthusiasm amid the slowing U.S. economy and divisive new government policies.

In tandem with those developments, airlines have continued to announce new routes for the year and capacity expansions on existing routes.

In late March, for instance, American Airlines announced new routes to Cancun, Mexico, and Punta Cana, Dominican Republic, for this winter. Similarly, Delta revealed in early April that it's adding St. Vincent and Grenada to its roster, along with expanding Caribbean, Mexico and Central America flight options to create what will be its "largest-ever winter schedule to Latin America and the Caribbean."

These two developments may appear to conflict with one another – airlines adding more flights and seat capacity when travel may or may not be declining. But industry watchers say there's a much more nuanced reality at play.

Most notably, many of the routes being announced were planned long before the current tumultuous environment triggered by the new presidential administration taking office.

"While headlines suggest that travel demand is softening due to economic uncertainty and global tensions, airlines operate with a much longer [lead] when it comes to planning," says Jesse Neugarten, CEO of Dollar Flight Club, told TravelPulse." Adding new routes doesn't always reflect current demand as it's a bet on future demand."

Most of the recent route expansions were likely planned months ago, added Neugarten, and are based on forecasted consumer behavior, competitive positioning, and capacity optimization.

Further, while airlines typically make a big splash of announcing new routes and destination offerings, there may be far less coverage of routes they are simultaneously eliminating. Meaning, on balance, an airline's offerings may not necessarily be increasing all that much, according to some experts.

"All airlines are relentless at optimizing their route networks to drive every penny of profit out of their network based on network volumes and demand," Gabe Rizzi, president of ALTOUR, a premium corporate travel solutions provider, tells TravelPulse.

"This may [be] reducing flights in underperforming markets, yet the only press coverage is on the expansion in new markets that are more promising," Rizzi adds. "So, net-net it may be the same amount of lift [with] optimization of their network footprint to drive profit."

FlightHub executive Ayoub Hissar says those flight optimizations may be aimed at capturing demand in specific markets that warrant it. "New routes are for demand. If an airline sees other airlines getting a good market share for a specific route, then they recreate their own; sometimes, it's even seasonal," Hissar notes.

In reality, what we may be witnessing as airlines continue with expansion in some markets and schedule reductions in others is airlines presenting two scenarios, says Peter Vlitas, executive vice president of partner relations for Internova Travel Group, one of the world's largest travel services companies.

"One [scenario] reflects the growing appetite of the American consumer to travel, and another that takes a more conservative view," Vlitas told TravelPulse.

"It's a cautious 'stay the course' approach until there's more clarity, but prepare for all outcomes as best as possible," added Vlitas. "That means holding costs, reducing ASMs (available seat miles) in slower markets, and monitoring how advance bookings for summer shape up over the next 30 days."

Meanwhile, concerns about growing anxiety among U.S. travelers appear to be real, but they also may be cyclical and likely to rebound.

For instance, the Spring 2025 Traveler Sentiment and Safety Survey conducted by Global Rescue shows that American travelers are increasingly worried about a recession. The company's survey found that 83 percent of respondents expect travel costs to rise due to recent U.S. policy initiatives, with nearly half (47 percent) saying travel costs will "definitely" increase.

Additionally, half of respondents (55 percent) are changing which countries they plan to visit amid current economic conditions, and 34 percent are postponing international travel.

Separately, a flash survey of 1,000 U.S. adults, conducted by MMGY between April 3 and April 5 amid the Trump Administration's latest tariff announcements, found that 80 percent of respondents said they intend to alter their travel behavior due to America's economic woes. Of that figure, 33 percent said they will travel closer to home.

Still, industry watchers predict this too shall pass.

"At Dollar Flight Club, we're still seeing strong interest in international travel deals, especially to Europe and Central America, which tells us travelers are staying savvy and opting to explore when the price is right, even amid broader uncertainty," says Neugarten. "So these airline route strategies aren't out of touch, they're a calculated move to be ready when the pendulum swings back, which historically, it always does."

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